mesbooks Chapter 129 Acquisition Of Twitter, Global Financial Crisis (1, For Automatic Subscription)
Chapter 129 Acquisition Of Twitter, Global Financial Crisis (1, For Automatic Subscription)
Shen Fei was surprised at how quickly Lin Yuan acquired Twitter until many years later.
at this point.
Lin Yuan himself is very proud.
Because the negotiation between him and Ivan only took less than three hours in total.
In fact.
If you don't count the time for two people to eat a meal, the normal negotiation time may only be one hour.
With an investment of 22 million US dollars, Wanli Investment got a 22% stake in Twitter.
This differs somewhat from Shen Fei's earliest estimate.
This is Lin Yuan's decision.
"They're not planning to sell their entire stake."
Lin Yuan said in a phone call to Shen Fei: "Ivan told me that they are going to replace the CEO of the company, let Jack Dorsey go, and make changes to the company at the same time, so I think 22% Shares, all right."
Shen Fei held the phone and remained silent for a long time.
to be honest.
He also did not expect that Lin Yuan would make this decision.
But if you think about it carefully, what Lin Yuan said actually makes sense.
If you want to fully acquire this company, you will need to spend at least three or four billion U.S. dollars, and you will lose the support of Wall Street afterwards.
Many people think that the development of an Internet company has nothing to do with capital. It only needs the company's technology to meet the standards and enough user groups.
In fact, this is a very wrong and naive idea.
The development of Internet companies has always been closely related to capital.
Without the intervention of capital, how could the valuation of those Internet companies soar?
to be honest.
The market value of Internet companies continues to rise, and the behind-the-scenes driving forces are these Wall Street capitals.
Capital is very clear that only by continuously pushing up the valuation of these companies can they make money.
In fact, the reason is very simple.
For example, the valuation of a company is 100 million US dollars, and a certain capital invested 20 million US dollars to obtain 20% of the shares. Soon after, another "340" company invested 100 million US dollars and obtained 20% of the shares. The shares of the previous company were diluted to 10%.
It seems that the shares have decreased, but in fact, because the company's valuation has reached 500 million U.S. dollars, the company that invested in before, with a principal of 20 million, has increased to 50 million.
This is the operation of capital.
The so-called financing is actually just a process of beating drums and spreading flowers.
After the listing, the money can be paid by those shareholders.
The continuous intervention of investment institutions has made the company's valuation continue to rise, so that it can attract more and more investors' attention. This is the reason why the value of many Internet companies is inflated.
Thinking of this, Shen Fei nodded and said to Lin Yuan: "In this way, the profit we can obtain may not be as high as we thought before."
"It's just an investment of more than 20 million yuan. According to what you said before, this company may go public within five years. If we still have more than 10% of the shares by then, we will definitely not lose money."
Lin Yuan said slowly.
In fact, he doesn't agree with Shen Fei's previous operation mode. If he really followed Shen Fei's approach, Wanli Investment would soon be blocked by Internet companies all over the world. After all, it would be too ugly to cash out and leave the market.
"Okay, let's do it then."
Shen Fei thought about it, and finally agreed to Lin Yuan's request.
As he said, if the investment of 20 million US dollars can still occupy 10% of the shares when it goes public, then if nothing else, "the rate of return is also very high.
Many people actually have misunderstandings about the issue of return on investment.
Real investment is not like what is shown in novels or movies and TV dramas. The return on investment is often hundreds or dozens of times. That is all nonsense.
Risk and return are always equal. It is meaningless to say how much return is required without mentioning how much risk should be taken.
The average annual rate of return of primary market private equity funds, commonly known as the venture capital industry, is about 15%. If it exceeds this number, it is considered successful.
In fact, most venture capital projects either make huge profits or lose all their money. Fifteen percent is basically an average figure, and it is a figure that can only be achieved by relatively good institutions. As long as the principal can be recovered, It is already a relatively successful investment. It would be better if the time value of money can be considered to earn a risk-free interest rate. If the return can exceed the common threshold of 8%, it will be a good deal.
It sounds outrageous, but Shen Fei knows very well that this is the fact.
There is a saying in the stock market that investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market. This is very reasonable.
Whether it is angel investment or venture capital, there are actually certain risks.
Even Warren Buffett, who is known as the stock market, and George Soros, who is known as the financial butcher, will lose money in their venture capital funds, let alone ordinary people.
One of Buffett's collaborators said that in fact, 80% of the stocks Buffett invested in lost money. The reason why they seemed to be profitable was because the return on investment of the other 20% was too high.
certainly.
This actually has no reference value for Shen Fei. After all, he has the advantage of foresight, which can make his investment success rate higher.
But the problem is that Shen Fei also knows that without the promotion of those capital institutions, the companies he invests in may not develop so well.
Therefore, when Lin Yuan proposed a change of plan, Shen Fei readily accepted it.
Because he realizes what is too much and what is not enough.
Putting down the phone, Shen Fei took a deep breath and shook his head helplessly.
I am still a little carried away!
The continuous success since his rebirth has made me look down on everyone a little bit.
This kind of thinking is actually very dangerous!
History is being changed bit by bit, and the advantages of foresight and foresight that I can rely on in my mind are gradually shrinking.
After all, in my previous life, I was just a director who lived in Hengdian. It would be outrageous to think that I could defeat the elite of this era by relying on foresight.
so.
Continue to make money cautiously and constantly improve yourself. This is what Shen Fei should do now.
Shen Fei knows exactly what he needs, so he has a clear purpose no matter what he does.
And he also knows that under this current situation, he seems to need an opportunity to make money.
In the early days of the Internet field, it was basically a case of burning money with no return. This is the inevitable result.
Therefore, there is no reward for the time being.
In this case, what Shen Fei has to do is open source!
He was looking for an opportunity to make some cash.
The entertainment industry is on the one hand, and the financial industry is also a possibility.
However, the risk factor in the domestic financial market was too high, so Shen Fei still set his sights on foreign countries.
"Eagle sauce."
Shen Fei sat on the sofa and muttered to himself.
He was recalling the extent of the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis.
In my impression, if I remember correctly, although the United States stabilized the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the resulting global financial tsunami swept the world.
Later generations Shen Fei remembered clearly that he had seen a piece of news.
Singer Jacky Cheung held 200 concerts from 2016 to 2018, basically in a row.
Zhang Xueyou is already fifty-eight years old, and he can't stand the toss. The reason why he works so hard to make money from concerts is actually forced by life.
As early as 2007, Zhang Xueyou planned to quit the music scene and live a comfortable life.
As a result, when Jacky Cheung went to the bank to make a deposit, he was persuaded by the bank staff to invest his money in a real estate bond with a yield rate that was said to be as high as 10%.
The seller of this high-yield bond is the fourth-ranked investment bank in the United States, named Lehman Brothers.
Then.
In September 2008, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. This was not only the largest investment bank bankruptcy in U.S. history, but also became the prelude to the global financial tsunami in 2008.
Jacky Cheung was really unlucky for eight lifetimes. All the savings he invested were lost. He no longer wanted to live in peace and contentment. In desperation, he had no choice but to make a comeback to make money.
In 2008, in the video advertisements of major office buildings in Hong Kong, a New Year promotional video shot for an amusement park in Hong Kong by the "singing god" Jacky Cheung, who had not been seen for a long time, appeared.
Since then, he has frequently held concerts, participated in movies, and made commercials.
On the surface, he looks very active and can help the police catch fugitives, but who knows Zhang Xueyou's suffering in his heart?
It was not only Zhang Xueyou who stepped on the thunder back then, but also a group of Hong Kong stars.
The bond that Zhang Xueyou bought was a "star wealth management product" back then, and many Hong Kong celebrities were recommended to buy this bond.
Liu Ruoying, who was going to retire, lost all her pension funds in the future, and followed Zhang Xueyou's old path. Even if her knees were injured, she still insisted on filming commercials to make money.
Zeng Zhiwei's family was also cheated by Lehman Brothers, and his daughter Zeng Baoyi cried on her blog: "This time I really lost everything, I'm afraid I have to start all over again.
This is the truth. A man of several decades still advertises web games, wearing armor and carrying a dragon-slaying sword, muttering "Equipment recycling, free trade, true legend, true brother".
Against the backdrop of the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the financial tsunami will naturally not lag behind.
This is what Shen Fei just remembered.
He had only remembered that the United States seemed to have started bailing out the market in May 2008, but he had forgotten that although the real estate market had stabilized, the financial market had become rich.
After all, real estate and finance have always been closely related.
In fact, like Dongying twenty years ago, the flow of money from the United States to real estate was also done on its own initiative.
When Reagan came to power in the 1980s, in response to the economic crisis, the United States began to issue U.S. debt, raise interest rates, and print money like crazy.
As a result, the rate of return from buying U.S. bonds is too high, much higher than the hard-earned money earned from manufacturing.
Under such circumstances, if American factory bosses want to make money, they will either move their factories to Southeast Asia and China, where workers are cheap, to reduce costs, or they will close their factories and focus on finance and real estate. They have no other choice.
Giving up manufacturing and playing finance is like a drug. Once you do it, don’t think about looking back.
certainly.
In Shen Fei's view, it is normal for the United States to behave this way.
After all, the essence of capital is to pursue profits. Just like Shen Fei himself, isn't he also thinking about making money in the financial industry?
all in all,
With the development of the times, the United States has collapsed its manufacturing industry, and the industrial center of the world has gradually moved to Asia..
There is no manufacturing industry to invest in. American capital has swarmed into the Internet, real estate market and stock market. Among them, the real estate market is the most stable. The Internet bubble bursts, but the American real estate market has never softened.
Real estate has changed from an industry to a belief among Americans.
In the first few years of the 21st century, the real estate market in the United States was like riding a rocket. As long as you buy something, you will make money.
Shen Fei has a very clear impression. He has seen a movie called "The Big Short", and there is a very outrageous scene in it: investor Eisman is in the casino city of Las Vegas.
When attending an international conference, I went to a striptease bar in the evening for excitement.
While chatting with a stripper, Eisman discovered that this pornographic practitioner, who had no stable income and relied solely on tips from clients, actually bought five houses with loans, one for each.
apartment.
You should know that according to general rules, before banks and loan companies issue mortgage loans to applicants, they must review your credit, whether you have a stable job, and how your property is.
But when Americans are flipping houses, no one checks your credit, and no one checks whether you can repay the loan on time.
The stripper girl filled in the occupation column as "therapist", so she got multiple loans easily, and the house that was borrowed was remortgaged, and she could get new loans in the future.
House of.
Even if her job is obviously a precarious strip dancer, the bank will not miss the loan.
Some Americans even directly write the name of their dog on it, and they can also get a loan to buy a house.
Television in the United States is full of mortgage advertisements: "Whether you are a young couple who can't afford the down payment, a self-employed person who can't prove their income, or a family of three who are in debt, don't care, come on kid, I'll lend you money. "
Stimulated by the government's low interest rates and loose policies, lending companies continue to lower loan standards and issue a large number of junk "subprime loans".
Higher than the sticker price of the house they bought.
Lending companies and Wall Street bankers are not fools. They know that these people have worrying credit, and it is very likely that they will stop paying halfway and still not be able to pay.
So they invented a new way to transfer risks: financial derivatives.
To give a simple example, after releasing the loan, it is equivalent to issuing an IOU to the bank.
For the bank, the risk of this IOU is very high, because you are very unstable as the person who writes the IOU. If you lose your job and cannot pay back the money, the IOU will fall into your hands. "It is impossible for the bank to guarantee that all loans will be recovered. have to come back.
then what should we do?
The bank thought of a clever trick: sell these IOUs that are about to explode at any time, and I will get the money first, and the risk will be given to the person who takes over the IOUs.
Just like throwing handkerchiefs when they were young, Wall Street bankers played a game of drumming and spreading flowers: after selling the IOUs in packages, they would earn a difference as a middleman, and
There is no risk of defaulting on the mortgage.
But anyone who knows a little bit knows that this handkerchief is not a handkerchief, but a bomb.
Other banks will not keep these IOUs in their hands, but try to sell them again.
This rubbish "handkerchief" was packed layer by layer and thrown away for several rounds, and its size began to become extremely large.
But the problem is, even if shit is poured 0.9 a hundred times, it is still shit.
It's like Cai Xukun fans bought tickets for the so-called "Kun Kun Concert" at a huge price, and ran to watch it with full expectations, but it turned out that Xie Guangkun was actually on stage.
This is how Zhang Xueyou and a group of Hong Kong Island stars became receivers.
What's even more outrageous is that, under the desperation, the U.S. government ignores those people who are bankrupt, homeless, and have lost their pensions, and instead spends 700 billion U.S. dollars to give those
Some of the culprits were Wall Street bankers.
Common people in the United States can die, but Wall Street must not fail!
Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street banks have avoided the fate of bankruptcy with the capital injection of the US government, but the perpetrators have no regrets, and still use taxpayers' life-saving money to collect money for executives.
The body issues year-end bonuses of one million or ten million dollars.
They deceived investors and the public and concocted this tragedy, but in the end, instead of being punished in the slightest, they were even given year-end bonuses?
The dissatisfaction of the people was raging, and the angry people took to the streets and launched the "Occupy Wall Street Action".
However, the mainstream media in the United States selectively ignored the protest and did not give much exposure.
After the dust settled, among the chicken feathers all over the place, the beaten and bleeding people not only lost their property, but were also imprisoned because of the parade.
They are struggling, precariously, with suffering they did not cause.
And on the way of their demonstration, just above their heads, the Wall Street elites held high year-end bonuses, opened delicious champagne, smiled and looked at the demonstrators on the street, as if they were
Appreciate a human comedy that has nothing to do with them, like the gods on Olympus.
No matter how angry the idiots are, they are just idiots, so what does it have to do with us?
But this time, Shen Fei didn't want to let it go, he wanted to bite off a piece of meat from these American capitalists!
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